Here is a scenario, but first a broad brush-painted historical parallel.
Hitler and the Nazis could well have accomplished everything that they wanted to do within German borders, including exterminating Jews, so long as they confined their ambitious to Germany itself. After all, the world pretty much sat and watched as the Nazi pogroms unfolded in the late 1930s. But Hitler never intended to confine himself to Germany and decided to attack his neighbours simultaneously, on multiple fronts East, West, North and South. This came against the advice of his generals, who believed that his imperialistic war-mongering should happen sequentially and that Germany should not fight the USSR until it had conquered Europe first, replenished with pillaged resources, and then reorganised its forces for the move East. They also advised that Germany should also avoid tangling with the US, which had pro-Nazi sympathisers in high places (like Charles Lindbergh) and was leaning towards neutrality in spite of FDR’s support for the UK.
Hitler ignored the advice and attacked in every direction, got bogged down in the Soviet winter, drew in the US in by attacking US shipping ferrying supplies to the UK, and wound up stretching his forces in North Africa, the entire Eastern front into Ukraine and the North Mediterranean states, the Scandinavian Peninsula and the UK itself. In other words, he bit off too much in one chew and wound up paying the price for his over-reach.
Hitler did what he did because he could, thanks in part to the 1933 Enabling Law that superseded all other German laws and allowed him carte blanche to pursue his delusions. That proved to be his undoing because his ambition was not matched by his strategic acumen and resources when confronted by an armed alliance of adversaries.
A version of this may be what is unfolding in the US. Using the cover of broad Executive Powers, Musk, Trump and their minions are throwing everything at the kitchen wall in order to see what sticks. They are breaking domestic and international norms and conventions pursuant to the neo-reactionary “disruptor” and “chaos” theories propelling the US techno-authoritarian Right. They want to dismantle the US federal State, including the systems of checks and balances embodied in the three branches of government, subordinating all policy to the dictates of an uber-powerful Executive Branch. In this view the Legislature and Judiciary serve as rubber stamp legitimating devices for Executive rule. Many of those in the Musk-lead DOGE teams are subscribers to this ideology.
At the same time the new oligarchs want to re-make the International order as well as interfere in the domestic politics of other liberal democracies. Musk openly campaigns for the German far-Right AfD in this year’s elections, he and Trump both celebrate neo-fascists like Viktor Urban in Hungry and Javier Milei in Argentina, Trump utters delusional desires to “make” Canada the 51st State, forcibly regain control of the Panama Canal, annex Greenland, turn Gaza into a breach resort complex and eliminate international institutions like the World Trade Organization and even NATO if it does not do what he says. He imposes sanctions on the International Criminal Court, slaps sanctions on South Africa for land take-overs and because it took a case of genocide against Israel in the ICC, doubles down on his support for Netanyahu’s ethnic cleansing campaign against Palestinians and is poised to sell-out Ukraine by using the threat of an aid cut-off to force the Ukrainians to cede sovereignty to Russia over all of their territory east of the Donbas River (and Crimea). He even unilaterally renames the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America in a teenaged display of symbolic posturing that ignores the fact that renaming the Gulf has no standing in international law and “America” is a term that refers to the North, Central and South land masses of the Western Hemisphere–i.e., it is not exclusive to or propriety of the United States.
Trump wants to dismantle the globalised system of trade by using tariffs as a weapon as well as leverage, “punishing” nations for non-trade as well as trade issues because of their perceived dependence on the US market. This is evident in the tariffs (briefly) imposed on Canada, Mexico and Colombia over issues of immigration and re-patriation of US deportees.
In other words, Trump 2.0 is about redoing the world order in his preferred image, doing everything more or less at once. It as if Trump, Musk and their Project 2025 foot soldiers believe in a reinterpreted version of “shock and awe:” the audacity and speed of the multipronged attack on everything will cause opponents to be paralyzed by the move and therefore will be unable to resist it. That includes extending cultural wars by taking over the Kennedy Center for the Arts (a global institution) because he does not like the type of “culture” (read: African American) that is presented there and he wants to replace the Center’s repertoire with more “appropriate” (read: Anglo-Saxon) offerings. The assault on the liberal institutional order (at home and abroad), in other words, is holistic and universal in nature.
Trump’s advisors are even talking about ignoring court orders barring some of their actions, setting up a constitutional crisis scenario that they believe they will win in the current Supreme Court.
I am sure that Musk/Trump can get away with a fair few of these disruptions, but am not certain that they can get away with all of them. They may have more success on the domestic rather than the international front given the power dynamics in each arena. In any event they do not seem to have thought much about the ripple effect responses to their moves, specifically the blowback that might ensue.
This is where the Nazi analogy applies. It could be that Musk and Trump have also bitten more than they can chew. They may have Project 2025 as their road map, but even maps do not always get the weather right, or accurately predict the mood of locals encountered along the way to wherever one proposes to go. That could well be–and it is my hope that it is–the cause of their undoing. Overreach, egos, hubris and the unexpected detours around and obstacles presented by foreign and domestic actors just might upset their best laid plans.
That brings up another possibility. Trump’s remarks in recent weeks are descending into senescence and caducity. His dotage is on daily public display. Only his medications have changed. He is more subdued than during the campaign but no less mad. He leaves the ranting and raving to Musk, who only truly listens to the fairies in his ear.
But it is possible that there are ghost whisperers in Trump’s ear as well (Stephen Miller, perhaps), who deliberately plant preposterous ideas in his feeble head and egg him on to pursue them. In the measure that he does so and begins to approach the red-line of obvious derangement, then perhaps the stage is being set from within by Musk and other oligarchs for a 25th Amendment move to unseat him in favour of JD Vance, a far more dangerous member of the techbro puppet masters’ cabal. Remember that most of Trump’s cabinet are billionaires and millionaires and only Cabinet can invoke the 25th Amendment.
Vance has incentive to support this play because Trump (foolishly, IMO) has publicly stated that he does not see Vance as his successor and may even run for a third term. That is not want the techbro overlords wanted to hear, so they may have to move against Trump sooner rather than later if they want to impose their oligarchical vision on the US and world. An impeachment would be futile given Congress’s make-up and Trump’s two-time wins over his Congressional opponents. A third try is a non-starter and would take too long anyway. Short of death (that has been suggested) the 25th Amendment is the only way to remove him.
It at that point that I hope that things will start to unravel for them. It is hard to say what the MAGA-dominated Congress will do if laws are flouted on a wholesale basis and constituents begin to complain about the negative impact of DOGE cost-cutting on federal programs. But one thing is certain, chaos begets chaos (because chaos is not synonymous with techbro libertarians’ dreams of anarchy) and disruption for disruption’s sake may not result in an improved socio-economic and political order. Those are some of the “unknown unknowns” that the neo-con Donald Rumsfeld used to talk about.
In other words, vamos a ver–we shall see.
I can’t help but wonder what high ranking members & former members of the military must make of what is happening in the US. I can’t imagine that this rampage by Musk/Trump through all the sectors of what makes the US function both at home & abroad will go on without some sort of physical protest at the very least.
Di,
Normally I would say that the brass will follow the Constitution and ignore unconstitutional acts by Trump, Hegseth, Musk and others. But Trump/Hegseth already have a plan to replace constitutionalists with loyalists among the senior ranks, so how the military rejects that move while obeying the constitutional edicts about civilian supremacy over the military is going to be tricky. The literature on democratic civil-military relations poses that, beyond subordination in general to civilian authority, the military can only refuse certain orders if they are unlawful and/or interfere with the “corporate” Anthony of the armed services. Meddling with promotion schedules in order to use ideological criteria for advancement among the senior ranks could well be one such intrusion even if it is “lawful” in the strict sense of the term
US adversaries would be well advised to take this advantage of this moment of opportunity because things look to be in disarray (for example, a US carrier just collided with another boat/ship in the Suez Canal. It may not be the carrier’s fault but it will likely result in disciplinary action regardless).
Oh lordy! So much can go wrong & probably will. As you say, it’s a perfect opportunity for any adversaries of the US to make capital of the turmoil and they will, no doubt. Added to that, Trump & Vance are bolstering Putin & Russia’s plans for Ukraine. Perhaps one small light at the end of a very dark tunnel is the fact that certain EU countries do seem to finally be getting their act together to better support Ukraine – & themselves ultimately.
I can’t see the international situation improving any time soon. Just the last couple of years or so we were being told how russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened NATO but now Trump/Musk/Vance et al are busy undoing all of that. Perhaps it’s time for the EU & all other NATO countries to go it alone without the US.
The most likely outcome now is civil war or at best the break up of the USA. The trigger will be the GOP losing the house and senate in 2026 and the subsequent attempt to annul or ignore the results by executive decree. One could easily imagine California (for example) simply starting to refuse to recognize presidential decrees and being joined by other blue states as a catalyst.
Who’d be the Churchill, Roosevelt & Stalin in this case?
Tom Semmens: who gets the permanent UNSC seat and the nuclear warheads, in the event of a US breakup?
Thank you for your comments Pablo – things are moving v fast. I came across this little segment this morn, relevant to your last post, and already it seems old hat – useful brief overview though and I like the prof w her paint peeled door … :-).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dW8QuKDVV4A
V concerned about devts in Europe, but plsed the Euros are getting it together in readiness to go it alone … other headlines, cuts etc will only damage the States further (Nat Parks staff).
Forgive the shorthand, I’ve broken my arm!
Its rather restricting.
But pls keep up any commentary you have, its all grist for the mill for those of us concerned enough.
Barbara:
Cox Richardson has become every liberals favourite public intellectual and she does a good job of it. Her comments reflect our general sense that things are getting, well, ore bizarre by the day. Trump just said on social media something to the effect that a person who “saves the country” is above the law. The quote actually dates back to Napoleon but of course Trump did not credit the original. What is morbidly fascinating about that comment, at least from my perspective, is that every dictator that I studied in Latin America during my academic career, be they of the Right or the Left, has more or less echoed those words in one way or another. So for me Trump’s true colours, or at least those putting such words in hhis mouth, are clearly starting to show.
Thanks.
Yes I see the quote from Napoleon.
Funny, in the image of Trump accompanying the article (RNZ) – he looks just like Theoden.
These are all archetypes.
The comment above re states eg Calif. opposing decrees seems realistic to me, some kind of break up or breakaway almost seems possible to me now. Any comment on that. Its a powerful, liberal, and wealthy state, n’est-ce pas? If not, what would be the outcome in the face of resistance to presidential demands (I hesitate to call them decrees, really).
I had also thought on the response of the armed forces to any demand – that they invade Greenland, eg. or Panama.
would/could there be a military coup? What would their generals be thinking at this point in time,
The whole Trumpian business seems doomed to me.
The Trump Axis is benefiting from a lack of adequate domestic opposition. The Democrats have structural issues that involve the MSNBC crowd having more control over selecting their party’s presidential ambitions than primary voters.
Concerning Musk, those who “work the system” in his or their favour are the most dangerous actors. Musk might come unstuck politically, but what happens when the next person who makes the mud stick comes along?
Ultimately, Trump turning his sights on alliances is another self-inflicted wound. Russia, North Korea, and Iran are emboldened in the long term.
So far, countries like Australia and New Zealand lack the courage to form a League of Democracies. The current failure to adapt to Trumpism and the declining international situation is akin to the Titanic approaching the iceberg.
Ultimately, the U.S. might sit out WW3’s onset, but like with WW1, eventually, their interests will come under increasing pressure. Moreover, without the U.S. historical industrial muscle and another late arrival, the war(s) outcome doesn’t save the remaining parts of the international rules-based order.
Thanks Luke,
For your considered thoughts. I will only address one of them here, which is the subject of the Trump/Musk “enablers.” Beyond people like Stephen Miller, Project 2025 recommended “flooding the zone” with a legion of neo-reactionary foot soldiers who would take over the political appointee positions and then the upper civil service ranks. They would then translate Project 2025 policies into practice. That is what is occurring at the moment. Without the enablers little if any of the Trump/Musk agenda could happen.
I found this today: Turkish proverb: A clown that enters a kingdom does not become a king, instead the kingdom becomes a circus.
Indeed Barbara, and thanks for that. Read my next post to see how this applies outside the US.